BDI-Präsident Keitel © Schinzler

The BDI expects GDP in Germany to grow by 1.5 to 2 percent in 2010.

"With our positive framework conditions there could even be a two before the decimal point," BDI President Hans-Peter Keitel said at the BDI annual press conference held in Berlin. However, policy-makers would have to release all brakes on growth in order to achieve self-sustaining growth. Prof. Keitel called for policy-makers to draw up a resolute and consistent growth strategy. "All brakes on growth, however small, put jobs at risk."

According to the BDI, exports will once again be the motor of the German economy. It will primarily be the leading emerging market economies which will provide a positive impetus to global trade. The German export industry is also crucial for protecting jobs. "Highly specialised export companies, often world market leaders with high-performance products, need a workforce with considerable know-how", the BDI President said. "This allows companies in Germany to hold on to their employees despite the weak orders and profit situation." According to Prof. Keitel this proves that a highly innovative and export-oriented industry is a huge stability factor for the labour market in Germany.

However, statistical base effects make the upswing appear to be greater than it actually is, Prof. Keitel warned: "Even if there is a two before the decimal point, 2010 will be a difficult year as we have to move on from growth generated by economic stimulus packages to self-sustaining growth. Growth will not be automatic.

Even if the economy does grow by two percent in 2010, the worst will still not be over. Future growth has to be earned the hard way, through wise and forward-looking policies. "This includes increased promotion for research in new technologies. For innovation creates jobs for the future," the BDI President said. Germany should be careful not to become overzealous in its engagement for climate protection, thus creating a situation where it ends up exporting jobs instead of exports technologies – with negative consequences for climate protection", the President said.

"To ensure that the upswing is not put at risk, the banks should safeguard company funding of the real economy. The danger of a credit squeeze has not been banished. In principle, the banks - not the state - have the solution. The state has already made its contribution by launching stimulus packages worth billions. Banks must therefore now live up to their responsibility to society as a whole," the BDI President urged.